As the bond market prepares for the start of a Fed rate hike cycle, we decided to look back at the previous rate hike cycles in which the Fed moved at least 1.75% (Wall Street’s consensus for rate hikes this year). There have been eight such cycles over the past 50 years. Typically, the bond market begins its move well in advance of the first Fed rate hike, just as we’ve seen this time around. Intermediate and longer-term yields have always increased once the Fed started hiking. On average, by the time the Fed had raised rates 1.75% the yield on the 3-year Treasury increased 1.4% and the yield on the 10-year Treasury increased 0.7%.
